Barney Frank is Gonna Be Pissed…

“CNBC – Sub-prime mortgages make a comeback—with a new name and soaring demand

The wheel. The printing press. Sub-prime mortgage securitization.

The three greatest innovations in human history. Prior to the wheel, ancient man was destined to live a relatively stationary life. There was no ability to explore, hunt and migrate beyond the area that you could walk and carry your belongings. It resulted in tribes and solitude. Before Gutenberg, Western Civilization was mired in a medieval rut. People relied on scribes to replicate texts, making it almost impossible to spread new ideas en masse. Once the printing press entered the scene, the great enlightenment took off, leading to what we know as The Renaissance. Preceding the boom in sub-prime mortgage securitization, banks were relegated to making markets in the infinitely boring world of agency paper and prime, private label mortgages. It was almost impossible to make a decent buck, the typical structured finance banker usually only had two or three different pairs of Gucci 53’s – these were trying times, indeed. Once Angelo Mozilo started slingin’ subprime credit around the West Coast, though, things would never be the same. Bankers were closing deals and collecting fees hand over fist. Working at a ratings agency wasn’t nearly as bad (this pertains to working in the structured finance group, can’t say the same for corporates or munis). There were even new industries growing as bankers left their analysts behind to set up their own shop as CDO managers. This was the height of human ingenuity and it changed the world (while making a handful of people a bunch of money).

Look – I’m not here to praise what happened with the sub-prime mortgage boom, but I’m not here to relentlessly bash it either, no matter how snide and sarcastic the previous paragraph was. There is no doubt that the boom in sub-prime credit and the securitization machine that fueled it played a large role in the financial crisis (side note: I wonder when we’ll stop calling it THE financial crisis, like there haven’t been many before and will be many after). But there were also other causes as well, like the rewrite of the Community Reinvestment Act in 1995, which incentivized banks to extend mortgage credit to communities with outsized populations of “credit deprived” citizens in order to stimulate local economies that needed it (good!). That also meant that banks needed to throw their standard underwriting practices out the window and lend money to people who were previously deemed unworthy of credit in the first place (bad!). One could also look to Alan Greenspan’s tenure at The Fed, where he opened the monetary spigots and took, what some believe to be, too much of a laissez faire attitude toward regulating the exploding sub-prime mortgage markets.

Securitization (sub-prime included) is a much-maligned, but widely misunderstood capital markets mechanism that does have great benefits. It plays a very important role in a modern, credit-based economy that takes place largely behind the scenes. The purpose of securitization is to assist banks in financing the borrowing activities of a large pool of individuals or corporations through the use of third party (investor) capital. The beauty is, you can securitize almost anything: mortgages, credit card balnces, aircraft leases, capital assets, you name it. Hell, even David Bowie securitized the future profits from his catalog. In a nutshell, banks are able to extend credit to borrowers, structure the future interest/principal cash flows from the borrowers into securities and sell those to investors. This allows the bank to move the debt off its own balance sheet, freeing up the capital to continue lending into the economy. This is a great thing if done in a proper way and I doubt everyone really understands how much of an impact it has on their daily life (including allowing us to live and spend the way we do).

Sure, things got out of hand last time and it really did blow up in our faces. But when I see alarmist headlines like this out of CNBC it makes me shake my head, because lending to people who need it is a good thing and all that does is perpetuate the belief that these funding mechanisms are inherently detrimental to society. Sub-prime mortgages and securitization didn’t cause the financial crisis, people did (and odds are, they’ll do it again with something else).

Pershing Square Destroying Its Business Just In Time to Open Swanky, New West Side Headquarters

“Bloomberg – About two-thirds of the capital that investors could withdraw from Pershing Square Capital Management’s private funds was redeemed at the end of last year, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Blackstone Group LP has been pulling its money, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. has removed Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square from its list of recommended funds for clients, the person said.”

They say there are three days in a man’s life that define him: the day he’s born, the day he dies and the day his institutional LPs start pulling their capital (nobody actually says this, I made it up for the purpose of writing this blog). Today, Bill Ackman is here to add a second notch to his legacy-defining belt.

Listen, it’s not unheard of to have some smaller, high net worth LPs redeem some cash when things get a little shaky. They most likely don’t have a deep enough capital base to ride out a cold streak from their managers, so it’s understandable. When the likes of Blackstone and J.P. Morgan start raining redemption requests on your lowly investor relations analysts, though, times are dire. Ackman has had a tough few years, marked by chronic underperformance, a gut-wrenchingly expensive divorce and what amounts to the hedge fund equivalent of a public caning from Carl Icahn. But this is America, and as far as I’m concerned, we love a great comeback story – which led me to wonder if 2018 would be the year Ackman would begin his. I can now say emphatically that 2018 will not be his comeback year, as a Pershing Square liquidation / return of capital seems to be a much more likely scenario. As the fund moves to satisfy redemption requests and liquidate hundreds of millions of dollars worth of positions into an already down year, Ackman (and his LPs) will likely be selling into deeper losses as they look for bids wherever they can get them (not ideal!), further tarnishing his record and reputation. The only thing he has going for himself at this point is that the funds are gated, limiting LP redemptions to 12.5% of their capital each quarter, allowing Pershing Square to clip some last minute management fees (isn’t the hedge fund comp model grand?).

Billy has had some high-profile misses in the last few years, getting torched most notably by Valeant and Herbalife (he also blew up his first fund, Gotham Partners, which is rarely mentioned in the media these days). While it’s fun to point out all of his mistakes, we’d be remiss not to revisit some of his biggest wins – because despite all of the negative news recently, he actually has made his investors money over the long haul, even beating out the broader market. He’s had great success in his Canadian Pacific, General Growth Properties and Wendy’s plays. His greatest, and savviest, play IMO, has to be his short of MBIA all the way back in 2002. Billy had a hunch that the mortgage credit markets were about to turn ugly and he wanted some action. He turned his sights on MBIA, who was buying mortgage credit risk by selling credit default swaps on securitized mortgage debt. Ackman went out to markets and started building a credit default swap position against MBIA’s own debt and shorting their stock, betting that the company was destined to payout on all the protection they sold, eventually bankrupting themselves. It took a few years, but the bet paid out handsomely during the 2008 financial crisis, proving Ackman was ahead of the hedge fund curve and launching him back into the limelight.

That was a long time ago, though, and investment management is a “what have you done for me lately” business. We should be thanking Ackman, though. Never has anyone provided so much content, both good and bad, for the financial media and its consumers. He has a complex tale that has been wrapped in a “truth is stranger than fiction” aura since he burst onto the scene. Whatever you think of the guy (and many hate him), we’ll be discussing his legacy for a long time – and we all know, he wouldn’t have it any other way (except the terrible returns, he’d probably take those back).