You Cryan, Boy?!

“Reuters – Large investors in Deutsche Bank have urged its chairman to provide a clear signal on whether the board backs the lender’s embattled chief executive or not…

Dead man walking. John Cryan is inevitably out as CEO of Deutsche Bank, and the announcement will come sooner rather than later. He was appointed CEO in 2015 after their board gave Anshu Jain his walking papers. So now, after a few years of unlimited brats and kraut, it looks like this native Briton is back to bangers and mash.

You hate to see someone get embarrassed on the public stage like this, but you also hate to hire someone who sucks at their job. Cryan was unable to maximize shareholder value, which is like, prerequisite #1 for being CEO of a bank. It is worth noting however, that he didn’t inherit a perfectly healthy institution, either – but he knew what the job entailed and came out of the gates with an ambitious restructuring plan called “Strategy 2020”. The whole thing was predicated upon firing a few thousand employees, raising come capital and reducing costs. Pretty standard stuff.

His real problems started in Q3 2016, when the U.S. government levied a $14B (eventually settled for $7.2B) penalty on the bank related to the marketing of crisis-era RMBS. In response to the financial crisis, European banks were required to raise capital to buffer themselves against a future crisis, and they used Contingent Convertibles (CoCos) to do it. These securities are designed to be wiped out first in the event of a credit crisis, forcing creditors to bail-in the banks vs. having central banks bail them out. Once news of the U.S. fine hit, DB CoCos got pummeled because markets knew they couldn’t pay up based on their cap structure at the time. Long story short, this whole mess wiped billions in market cap off the Company and forced it to raise $8B in equity a few months later – at a 35% discount (sheesh)!

Fast forward to today and the Company hasn’t turned a profit in THREE YEARS. Imagine that, a bank not being able to turn a profit in 2017. You gotta fire this guy, and I’m surprised it took so long. The ironic part is that he knew DB had to raise that $8B to save the bank, and the same guys he sold the equity to are making calls directly to the board to fire his ass. Tough look, John. Tough look, indeed. So let’s raise a glass to John Cryan, because at the end of the day, he no longer needs to live in Frankfurt – and that my friends, is a victory in and of itself.

Noted Space Cadet and Flamethrower Manufacturer Taking on the Haters

“Bloomberg – Tesla Urges Workers to Prove the ‘Haters’ Wrong and Ramp Up Production

When he’s not bailing out one of his ventures at the expense of another or selling flamethrowers, Elon Musk is taking on the Tesla haters. There certainly are a lot of them these days, especially with capacity constraints and exploding cars impacting not just Model 3 deliveries, but the company’s cap structure as well. Tesla’s 5.3% 2025 paper has gotten crushed over the last week or so, currently trading at ~7.6%. The volatility, combined with the market’s weariness of Tesla delivery targets, has resulted in, you guessed it: a credit downgrade from Moody’s to B3 (S&P likely on deck).

Listen I love Elon. The guy toes the line between genius and lunatic better than anybody out there. Sometimes he builds PayPal, sometimes he build a rocketship and launches one of his overpriced cars into orbit. You never know what you’re gonna get, and that’s the kind of leadership I can get behind (not with my money, though).

That said – the company is certainly in the crosshairs of every shortbook on the planet. No doubt they’ll need to access markets to fund production targets at some point this year. Whether they choose equity or debt is yet to be seen, but they’ll both be relatively expensive. I’m rooting for the guy, but I’m more so getting my popcorn ready and rooting for the ride ahead. What a shitstorm of a bankruptcy that would be.

 

If You Thought the Bob Diamond Era Was Over at Barclays, You Were Wrong (Until This Morning)

“Bloomberg – Barclays Plc agreed to pay $2 billion in civil penalties to settle a U.S. investigation into its marketing of residential mortgage-backed securities between 2005 and 2007.”

The gift that keeps on giving: the 2008 financial crisis. While nobody wants to pony up $2B for alleged misdeeds, the news is actually great for Barclays as this settlement resolves all of their outstanding DoJ suits. They also nabbed two MDs for $2M to drop charges against them as well.

That said, can we talk about financial crisis litigation for a second? If you ever wanted to know how long it would take for armies of corporate lawyers and the U.S. gov’t to settle dozens of lawsuits over billions of dollars worth of securitizations, the answer is: no idea. We’re ten years removed from the crisis and still hammering out the details on settlements (no admission of guilt, of course!), and I’m sure there are more to come. I did find this little piece on Reuters referencing a BCG whitepaper where they estimate that global banks have paid $321B in penalties since the crisis (so more like $323B after this latest Barclays donation). That is just a shitload of money that I’m sure was put to great use by governments around the world.

Anyway – let’s all get a slow clap going for Barclays as they wrap up the North American leg of their financial crisis litigation tour. Best of luck to Bob Diamond as well, pretty sure he’s been relegated to conducting LBOs in Africa or something.

Overstock.com Realizes That Preparing for a Bitcoin Future Can Be Expensive in the Capital Markets Present

“CNBC – E-commerce company-turned-blockchain play Overstock.com‘s 4 million share offering has been canceled, according to a source familiar with the situation. Underwriter Guggenheim Securities decided late Wednesday night not to proceed due to market conditions, the source said.”

Overstock.com decided to kill it’s 4M share offering late Wednesday evening, as it discovered that while great for business in 2017, trading in lockstep with bitcoin hasn’t quite worked out in 2018. Look, I can see where Overstock is coming from. There is something to be said about first mover advantages and all that, but there’s also that John Henry line from the movie Moneyball: “…the first guy through the wall — he always gets bloody. Always.”

I subscribe to that philosophy. Let someone else innovate and deal with the cash burn. Outsource your R&D to the idealist and improve upon their design (or if they blow up, snatch the remains and run with it). In Overstock’s case, their CEO, Patrick Byrne, is the idealist. He had grandiose visions of transforming his e-commerce platform into a cryptocurrency exchange overnight, so the markets treated it like one. The guy has turned his once stable, discount furniture company into a crypto proxy with the likes of Riot Blockchain and that iced tea company from Long Island. Make no mistake: other large e-commerce and social network platforms would love to develop their own dominant medium of exchange a la crypto, and they’re taking notes on how to avoid the same fate as Overstock in the process.

Always remember: issuing equity can get expensive, especially when you’re planning on generating future cash flows by making markets in pixie dust. My condolences to Overstock shareholders.