Here’s One Deal Toy Blankfein Will Be Leaving at 200 West

“Bloomberg – Goldman Is Fighting a New Abacus Battle With an Angry Hedge Fund”

I wrote a blog in March about Barclays paying $2B to settle it’s final outstanding DoJ suit related to the 2008 financial crisis. The opening line went a little something like this:

“The gift that keeps on giving: the 2008 financial crisis.”

Well six months later that statement still rings true, of course, as we see one of the juicier stories of the crisis resurrecting itself: Goldman’s family of Abacus CDOs. While this isn’t the same exact Abacus deal that placed Goldman and Paulson & Co. into the crosshairs of regulators, I can’t pass up an opportunity to discuss some crisis-era structured credit.

Goldman sold investors a synthetic CDO called “Abacus 2006-10” in the early spring of ’06. A synthetic CDO is a bit arcane of a concept but not that difficult to understand if it’s explained properly. Basically, Goldman had exposure to a bunch of mortgage bonds, known as reference obligations, and they were looking to hedge the risk of the bonds from default. They found a group of savvy investors to fund a special purpose vehicle (“SPV”) that would write Goldman a credit default swap on their reference obligations and Goldman would pay the investors quarterly premiums for that protection (just like insurance). But, if any of the reference obligations defaulted, then the investors would have to pay Goldman on that loss. At the end of the trade, the investors get back anything that’s left in the SPV (hopefully 100% of their principal) plus the premiums they had been receiving all along.

When the investors buy into the CDO, they don’t keep a bunch of cash in the SPV, though. That cash is managed by Goldman to build out a portfolio of high quality bonds, known as the collateral pool. Then, if any reference obligations default, the collateral is sold down to pay out Goldman. However, if nothing defaults then Goldman gets to keep any of the carry generated by the collateral pool – the CDO investors see none of it (which may sound unfair at first). But! While Goldman gets to keep any carry generated, they also need to reimburse any losses the pool suffers from poorly performing collateral so, ipso facto the CDO investors shouldn’t care about the collateral pool performance, just the reference obligations (which is exactly what they signed up for). The performance of the collateral pool has no bearing on the CDO investors’ return profile – only reference obligation performance does. It sounds quirky but this is just how the synthetic CDO market is structured and it’s players can at least agree on that much.

Here’s where it gets hairy. This distressed credit fund, Astra Asset Management, is claiming that Goldman breached the CDO’s collateral pool requirements in 2013 by purchasing riskier bonds that didn’t meet quality requirements laid out in the indenture. They’re now suing to terminate the CDO contract as of 2013 and insisting that Goldman return $124M in default payments that they received from the CDO over that period. On top of that, wouldn’t you know it, the CDO is overcollateralized by ~$70M and Astra wants that too. Although, it seems pretty clear cut the excess collateral belongs to Goldman – not sure what the legal basis would be for that.

Goldman’s counter to all of this is that the indenture is pretty clear that they’re responsible for any collateral shortfalls like I mentioned above, so even if they technically did breach the agreement they never put any CDO investors at risk as they’d make the pool whole. That makes sense, but it also makes sense that if there’s a technical breach of contract the infringed upon party has some sort of recourse. In the end, I doubt this moves works for Astra but kudos to them for trying. Either way, I’m just happy to be talking about Abacus deals again.

 

Stop Me If You’ve Heard This Before: Houston-based Power Traders Blow Up Another Region’s Power Market

“Bloomberg – On June 5, GreenHat received an invoice from PJM for $1.2 million to cover losses. It didn’t pay. On June 21, PJM declared GreenHat in default. Losses have continued to mount, according to PJM. The portfolio has more hedges that will probably keep losing money for three years…”

I love these types of stories. Pull out a big Wall Street pot and mix in equal parts of leverage, some win at all cost trading and an esoteric financial instrument. Kick in a dash of regulatory incompetence and you’ve got yourself one delightful tale about how someone inevitably blew up their book and caused some turmoil in the broader market.

We see these messes pop up every so often and they usually play out the same way: (i) someone has a “brilliant” trade that almost always includes derivatives or a structured product; (ii) they get caught flat-footed as the market turns against them; (iii) they try and trade their way out; (iv) other market participants catch wind of their troubles; and (v) the book blows up and regulators step in. The only thing that really changes is the asset class. Well gather round, folks: today we’re talking about power markets.

I’m not sure if the general population understands how wholesale power markets even work, so I suppose a quick intro couldn’t hurt. As a result of deregulation in the 90s and early 00s, two distinct market structures developed: (i) traditional, regulated markets in which a single utility company is responsible for generating and transmitting power to both wholesale and retail end users and (ii) RTO/ISO markets where private companies own the generation plants and transmission lines of a particular region. The generation companies participate in auctions, run by the RTO/ISO, for the ability to sell wholesale power into the market based on the energy efficiency of their plants. Once they win the auction, they’ll pay transmission companies a toll to use the grid to deliver the power. In layman’s terms, power generation companies say:

“Hey – we can provide xx megawatts of power at this price because we have a brand new, natural gas powered plant. The other guy who burns coal can’t come close to our price so we should win the bid.” 

And that’s exactly what happens. The company with the new, more efficient plant is awarded the contract and is now obligated to provide a fixed amount of power into the system, in the future, at a certain price – done and done. In a vacuum the system works perfectly – but the world doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Sometimes power demand is higher than normal (like during a heatwave) so the system becomes congested, leading to higher tolls for the power plants and eroding their profits in the process. Well here in America we like profits, so the RTO/ISO markets decided to develop a financial product to hedge against fluctuations in the tolls, which is where our friends at GreenHat Energy come in.

I don’t want to get into all the nuance of what happened with these guys but here’s the skinny. The two traders, Andrew Kittell and John Bartholomew, took a look at historical congestion trends in the PJM market (the largest RTO/ISO in the country) and decided not only would that historical pattern continue to play out, it would be exacerbated into the future. They then went out and amassed a huge portfolio of hedges that would payout were their thesis to come to fruition (mind you these guys weren’t hedging exposure, they amassed a naked, speculative portfolio of power derivatives). The problem for these two rocket scientists was that they didn’t factor grid equipment upgrades / repairs into their congestion models. The aforementioned upgrades reduced congestion rates materially over the last few years, slowly eroding the value of their portfolio until 2018 when the floodgates opened.

According to RTO Insider, the derivative portfolio represented a hedge on 890 million MWh of generation – an absolutely massive financial liability for a fund of their size. The value of the portfolio continued to deteriorate and is now facing estimated losses of $145M… and counting. It doesn’t even matter for GreenHat, either – they’re already in default and thus the losses will be absorbed by PJM and it’s participants (including retail customers). So how were these two guys able to use so much leverage to put together, and subsequently blow up, a portfolio and pass the losses on to everyone else? Put quite simply the problem was poor market structure and lax regulatory oversight.

There were two key weaknesses in the way PJM ran the market that brought GreenHat where it is today. The first is that market participants don’t pay for the contracts in full until settlement which is normally a few years out. GreenHat was able to operate on 100% margin and, as long as their trade was profitable at settlement, never had to worry about paying out on losses (kids, hubris is a terrible risk management strategy). Now is the point where you should be asking yourself about collateral requirements:

“Well, sure – they didn’t need to pay out on the contracts yet, but of course they had to post collateral as the portfolio fluctuated in value. Right?”

Wrong, actually! The collateral requirements are determined on a portfolio-level basis, not a position-level one. This past April, PJM changed it’s credit policy for market participants which would have resulted in a $60M collateral call for the GreenHat portfolio. However, market participants were given thirteen months to comply with the changes and rework their trading strategies. GreenHat used this window to amass enough new, profitable positions on 100% margin to negate the $60M collateral call coming down the pipe for their losing positions. Lipstick, meet pig. The window dressing worked for a bit until those positions moved against them as well, sewing the seeds of GreenHat’s demise and sending PJM and FERC scrambling to stop the bleeding. Regulators and market participants are currently kicking around different ideas on how to best equitably absorb at least $145M in losses.

I’m not exactly sure these guys are two of the most prudent fiduciaries out there. However, while I wouldn’t sign up to be a LP in their next venture, I have to point out that they operated within the framework that PJM and FERC had laid out for them. This will obviously force PJM and the rest of the RTO/ISO markets to restructure their credit policies going forward, hopefully they can figure one out that works this time.

Shoot First, Ask Questions Later: Upstream Edition (Update)

“Reuters – WTI Midland spread traded as weak as a $15 per barrel discount to crude futures on Thursday morning.”

“Reuters – Next-day natural gas prices for Thursday at the Waha hub in the Permian basin tumbled 60 percent to their lowest on record due to pipeline constraints limiting the amount of gas that can move out of the region.”

First things first: the blog has been eerily quiet for the last two and a half months. Yeah well, I was a little busy with work and enjoying my summer – sue me. I don’t think I missed any big stories other than Elon Musk trying his best to destroy TSLA’s stock price or every bitcoin speculator piling their money into weed stocks – but in any event the blogging engines are fired up and as a first order of business I’d like to touch on something very dear to me: energy markets.

I wrote a blog in late June discussing the lack of midstream assets / capacity in the Permian and what impact that would have on regional WTI and nat gas spreads. You’ll recall that Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer, predicted that WTI Midland would trade at a discount of $25/bbl within the next quarter. Well here we are three months later and the discount is ~$15/bbl – not quite $25 but still a sizable Midland / Cushing spread. On top of that, Permian natural gas is trading at an all time low of $0.66/mmBtu compared to Henry Hub product which currently sits at $2.98/mmBtu. This is bad news for Permian producers. The worse news, though? It’s about to get worse as refineries enter maintenance season this fall / winter. As refineries shut in for scheduled maintenance, the demand for crude will drop in lockstep. With even less demand for crude in the markets, Permian producers will be forced to reduce prices even further, eroding already delicate cash flow profiles.

It’s likely that some producers will have to shut in production and move rigs away to save cash for the spring and summer months. You may even see some consolidation among smaller independents and private equity drillcos – although many of these players may be too indebted to make a transaction like that pass muster with their boards / investment committees in this environment. Whatever does happen, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. One thing’s for certain: the E&P space is no stranger to booms and busts, good times and bad. The industry always makes it through, it’s just a matter of what players are left to fight in the next round.